Demographic Transition

Today we spent most of our class talking about demographic transition. Demographic Transition is a model of how natural increase rises and falls throughout time. There are 4 stages of demographic transition and historically, no country has ever reverted back to a previous stage.

Stage 1 
-Low growth
-Marked by high birth rate and high death rates
-No long term natural increase
-no country is currently in this stage

Stage 2
-Rapid growth
-Marked by rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates
-High natural increase
-Europe and North American entered stage 2 as a result of the industrial revolution (~1750)
-Africa, Asia, and Latin America entered stage 2 around 1950, as a result of the medical revolution-improved medical care

Stage 3
-Moderate growth
-Marked by a rapid decline in birth rate and a steady decline in death rates, natural increase is moderate
>>gap between CBR and CDR is narrower in stage 3 than countries in stage 4
-Population grows because CBR is still greater than CDR
-Most European and North American countries entered stage 3 in the mid twentieth century

Stage 4
-Low growth
-No long term natural increase and possible decrease
-Country reaches stage 4 when population gained by CBR is diminished by losses in CDR
-Condition known as zero population growth (ZPG)
>>demographers more precisely define ZPG as the TFR that produces population change
-Population change results from immigration


Declining Birth Rates
2 successful strategies for lowering birth rates

-Improving Education and Healthcare
>>Emphasizes improving local economic conditions so that increased wealth is allocated to education and health programs seeking to lower birth rates

-Contraception
>>More immediate results reaped than previous approach
>>Met with greater resistance, because it goes against some people beliefs or customs